North African countries
are all going through phases of demographic transitions, albeit not at the same pace and with the same consequences, due to their substantive differences in terms of population size but all share high levels of youth and women unemployment, skills mismatch and substantive numbers of their nationals abroad or intending to obtain work experience abroad. The MED-HIMS surveys, implemented in most North African countries provide a wealth of information on recent trends.[7]
North African countries
have also undertaken specific national initiatives. The North African countries have a tradition of labour emigration and other forms of migration and have each large diaspora groups abroad, notably in the EU Member States (EU MS). In 2013, Morocco
signed a Mobility Partnership agreement with the EU and a number of EU Member States (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom). One of the priority areas of this agreement is notably aimed at managing the movement of persons for short periods and regular and labour migration more effectively, as well as to strengthen the cooperation on migration and development in order to exploit the potential of migration and its positive effects on the development of Morocco and European countries. In 2014, Tunisia
signed a Mobility Partnership agreement with the EU and a number of Member States (Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Sweden and the United Kingdom). Amongst other objectives, the Partnership aims to improve the information available to qualified Tunisian citizens on employment, education and training opportunities available in the EU, and also to make mutual recognition of professional and university qualifications easier. Furthermore, it works towards a better integration of Tunisian nationals regularly living in the EU and of migrants regularly living in Tunisia as well as the mobilisation of Tunisian communities abroad in the development of Tunisia. Egypt
has signed several bilateral labour migration agreements with EU member states, most notably Greece in 1981 and Italy in 2005 but the latter has never been implemented. Egypt has several labour mobility and social security agreements with countries outside Europe, such as Jordon, Lebanon and United Arab Emirates.
Concurrently, labour markets have continued to be depressed in the post-Covid period with unemployment, underemployment, low wages, poverty, and deficits in decent work triggering social unrest and political transformation processes. The COVID impact on North Africa has been particularly harsh and has aggravated employment situations, particularly for the most vulnerable. While GDP growth in quarter two of 2021, in comparison to a year earlier, had regained strength, North African economies, except for Egypt, remained depressed compared to pre-pandemic.[8]
Pre-pandemic structural weaknesses, such as shares of NEETs among the highest in the world, and labour force and employment rates of women among the lowest, have only been exacerbated under COVID conditions and subsequently.[9]
For instance, in Tunisia, an ILO study found that “unemployment within the surveyed population increased by 33 per cent (going from 9 per cent to 12 per cent) between February and October 2020“ and “informal waged workers were 3 times more affected by job losses than formal waged workers.“ [10]
Employment and unemployment indicators and decent work opportunities also represent important factors determining migration dynamics
that affect especially the youth. While migrants’ remittances have counter-intuitively been particularly resilient and constituted a social safety net for North African households[11]
, post-COVID reconstruction calls for an even higher investment in education, skills, employment, decent work, and social protection to address the root causes of irregular migration. Available data shows that irregular flows, particularly of youth, often minors, are on the increase from North Africa.[12]
It is therefore essential that any new labour migration and mobility model takes these dimensions into account.
